Dubai Property Market Q3 2026: Sales, Prices and Outlook

The short answer

Dubai’s property market slowed sharply in Q3 2026. Residential sales fell 47% in value and 38% in number compared with Q3 2025, as buyers turned cautious during the regional conflict.¹ Prices are adjusting more slowly than sales: industry estimates put the decline since the end of 2025 at 5% to 15%, and S&P expects the correction to stay gradual.¹

AED 72.6bnResidential sales in Q3 2026, down 47% year on year¹

34,000Home sale transactions in Q3 2026, down 38%¹

65%Share of Q3 sales value that was off-plan (72% of purchases)¹

5 to 15%Estimated price decline, end of 2025 to September 2026¹

Why the numbers seem to contradict each other

If you read the news this month, you may have seen two very different stories: one about Dubai’s second-highest nine months in market history, and one about home sales falling by almost half. Both are based on real data. They simply measure different things.

Figure	What it measures	Value
All registered transactions, January to September 2026	Every type of real estate transaction registered in Dubai, not only home sales	AED 574.1bn 165,018 transactions²
Residential sales, January to September 2026	Purchases of apartments, villas and townhouses only	AED 292bn 112,580 sales, value down 27%¹
Residential sales, Q3 2026	The same, for July to September only	AED 72.6bn 34,000 sales, value down 47%¹

For a buyer, the residential figures are the ones that matter. They show a market that was very strong in January and February, and noticeably quieter since March. S&P Global Ratings calculates that average monthly sales from March to September 2026 were 12,644, down 26% from 17,198 a month in January and February.¹

What is happening to prices

Sales volumes react quickly to uncertainty. Prices react slowly, because most owners in Dubai are not forced to sell. That is exactly the pattern we see in 2026.

Overall: prices fell 5% to 15% between the end of 2025 and September 2026, according to industry reports cited by S&P.¹ The wide range reflects big differences between areas and property types.
Apartments vs villas: S&P expects apartment prices to fall more than villa prices, because most of the new supply is apartments.¹
Luxury: the luxury and ultra luxury segments are expected to feel the most pressure, as more investors sell on the secondary market.¹
Developers’ view: Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar expects an adjustment of 5% to 10% across the sector because of the war, and a “nice balance” in 2027 as new supply arrives.³

UBS adds a longer view. In its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026, Dubai scores 1.16 (up from 1.09), fourth of 23 cities and in the “elevated risk” category, alongside Miami, Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon. Only Zurich and Tokyo are rated high risk. Inflation-adjusted prices were up 0.4% year on year in Q2, while real rents were down 4%.³ We look at what this means for the risk of a crash in a separate article: Will Dubai property crash?

Off-plan still dominates

Even in a slower quarter, 65% of residential sales value and 72% of all purchases in Q3 2026 were off-plan.¹ Developer payment plans, where you pay in instalments during construction and the rest on handover, remain the main way buyers enter the market.

Buyer protection for off-plan has also been tightened. On 3 September 2026 the Dubai Land Department launched Initial Registration, a single platform for project registration, sales registration and escrow account management, with early warning indicators for projects that run into trouble.⁶ For buyers this means the link between your payment, the project’s escrow account and your ownership record is checked in one system.

Abu Dhabi tells a different story

While Dubai slowed, Abu Dhabi had its strongest half year on record. The Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre reported AED 117 billion in transactions in H1 2026, up 112%, with sales of AED 86.1 billion across 16,838 transactions. Foreign direct investment rose 309% to AED 13.8 billion, from buyers of 116 nationalities.⁴

New launches are still selling. Aldar reported more than AED 5 billion in sales from Talay at Marsa Al Saadiyat (351 villas) and Yas Riva Reserve (292 villas) in September 2026. Emiratis made up 31% of buyers, and buyers from the UK, Russia, Jordan and India were among the most active in the rest.⁵ STOREYS is Aldar’s top performing broker agency, so if Saadiyat Island is on your list, see our current collection.

What this means if you are buying now

You have more time. Fewer buyers means less pressure to reserve on launch day. Use it to compare projects properly.
Negotiate on ready and secondary property. This is where investors who want to sell meet fewer buyers.
Look at the type, not only the area. Apartments in areas with heavy new supply carry more price risk than villas and townhouses with limited supply.
Check the project before you pay. Confirm the project registration and escrow account with the Dubai Land Department, and read the payment plan dates carefully.
Calculate as a cash buyer. Add the 4% Dubai Land Department fee, registration and agency fees to the price, so you know your full cost from day one.

We will update this article when the Q4 2026 figures are published in January. If you want to know what the current market means for a specific project, message one of our advisors.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Dubai property market going down in 2026?

Activity has slowed clearly. Residential sales in Q3 2026 were worth AED 72.6 billion, 47% less than a year earlier, according to Cavendish Maxwell. Prices are softening more slowly: S&P Global Ratings, citing industry reports, puts the decline between the end of 2025 and September 2026 at 5% to 15%, and expects a gradual correction rather than a sharp fall.

Why do some reports say Dubai had a record year?

Headline figures of AED 574 billion for January to September count every registered real estate transaction, not only home sales. The residential sales figure for the same period is AED 292 billion, down 27% year on year. Always check which figure a report is quoting.

Are villas or apartments holding up better?

S&P Global Ratings expects apartment prices to fall more than villa prices, mainly because most of the new supply coming to market consists of apartments. Luxury and ultra luxury segments are expected to see the most pressure from investors selling on the secondary market.

Is Abu Dhabi performing differently from Dubai?

Yes. Abu Dhabi reported AED 117 billion in real estate transactions in the first half of 2026, up 112% year on year, with foreign direct investment up 309%, according to the Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre.

Is it a good time to buy property in Dubai?

A slower market gives cash buyers more room to negotiate and more choice, particularly in ready property and on the secondary market. It also means you should check the developer, the escrow registration and the realistic resale value more carefully than in a rising market. Speak to an advisor about the specific project before committing.

Sources

Figures are taken from the sources above as of the date shown. This article is general market information, not investment advice. STOREYS does not provide financing advice.

Dubai Property Market Q3 2026: What the Data Really Shows